Title: Resolving the Replication Crisis Using Multilevel Modeling
Speaker: Andrew Gelman, PhD
Professor, Department of Statistics
Professor, Department of Political Science, Columbia University
Date: Wednesday May 15, 2019
Time: 12PM - 1PM
Location: CAM Building, 17 East 102nd Street - West Tower Elevator 5th Floor, D5-122
Andrew Gelman, PhD, is a professor of statistics and political science and director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University. He has received the Outstanding Statistical Application award from the American Statistical Association, the award for best article published in the American Political Science Review, and the Council of Presidents of Statistical Societies award for outstanding contributions.
Dr. Gelman has done research on a wide range of topics, including: why it is rational to vote; why campaign polls are so variable when elections are so predictable; why redistricting is good for democracy; reversals of death sentences; police stops in New York City, the statistical challenges of estimating small effects; the probability that your vote will be decisive; seats and votes in Congress; social network structure; arsenic in Bangladesh; radon in your basement; toxicology; medical imaging; and methods in surveys, experimental design, statistical inference, computation, and graphics.
In recent years we have come to learn that many prominent studies in social science and medicine, conducted at leading research institutions, published in top journals, and publicized in respected news outlets, do not and cannot be expected to replicate. Proposed solutions to the replication crisis in science fall into three categories: altering procedures and incentives, improving design and data collection, and improving statistical analysis. We argue that progress in all three dimensions is necessary: new procedures and incentives will offer little benefit without better data; more complex data structures require more elaborate analysis; and improved incentives are required for researchers to try new methods. We propose a way forward involving multilevel modeling, and we discuss in the context of applications in social research and public health.
Wednesday, May 15, 2019
12:00 pm | Eastern Daylight Time (New York, GMT-04:00) | 1 hr
Meeting number (access code): 733 756 861
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*Light lunch will be provided
Wednesday, May 15 at 12:00pm to 1:00pm
17 E. 102nd Street - 5th Floor - West Elevator - Room D5-122, D5-122 SAME AS ABOVE